In actual service environments, 40% of the total failures that occur in aircraft are caused by sealing leaks, and the quality of their sealing performance directly affects the functionality, performance, and reliability of the product. However, the lack of wear monitoring of sealing rings on aircraft makes it difficult to evaluate the health status of sealing rings. To address this issue, this paper proposes a method for predicting the wear of active O-sealing based on physical model and statistical analysis. Firstly, a mechanism analysis and parameter measurement are conducted on the wear of the sealing ring. Secondly, Abaqus finite element software is used to simulate and study the motion process of the sealing ring, obtaining the contact stress of the sealing ring. Then, statistical analysis is conducted on the cumulative stroke of each servo flight to obtain the probability statistical curve of the stroke. Combined with the Holm Archard wear model, the probability distribution curve of the wear volume is obtained. Finally, based on the relationship between time and travel, a mathematical model between wear volume and time is established. Multiple samples are used for validation, and the results show that the probability of the actual wear volume within the predicted density function"s 3sigma range is 95.83%, proving that the model in this paper has a high probability of predicting the volume wear of the O-sealing for active seals.